Bored, Euro 2016's Late Goals Show
Bored, Euro 2016's Late Goals Show
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PARIS - Next week, Euro 2016 entering the last 16. When we analyze the productivity goal in every game in preliminary round, almost 30 percent of the goals at Euro 2016 have been scored after the 85th minute and substitutes are often at the heart of the drama. We look at how previous tournaments compare and what is behind the trend
The goals per game average at Euro 2016 is a miserable 1.96. Lower than any World Cup in history; lower than any European Championship since 1980; lower even than Serie A in the 1980s. Yet the tournament has not felt remotely boring, because of the charming underdog stories and particularly the overload of late drama.
Thirteen of the 47 goals scored so far have come after the 85th minute, easily the highest percentage in a European Championship and almost three times the equivalent figure at Euro 2012.
Euro 2016 will inevitably break the records for most late goals and most goals by a substitute, as there are 20 extra games, but it is the percentage figures that are more revealing. A striking 27.7 percent of the goals have been scored after the 85th minute. Opta stats show that only one other European Championship – 2008, when the figure was 21.9 percent – has managed even half that.
We have seen only 24 of the tournament’s 51 matches, and things will regress towards the mean as the sample size becomes bigger. But already late goals, along with Andrés Iniesta’s quest to became the first man to produce a perfect 90 minute performance, feels like a lasting theme of the tournament.
There is no one reason for all the late goals, rather a combination of circumstances that include defensive fatigue, the freshness of attacking substitutes and a lack of experience at protecting a lead in a major tournament.
The closeness of the matches is another important factor. The late goals have largely been the cake, not the icing. Only two matches – Spain v Turkey and Belgium v the Republic of Ireland – entered the last five minutes with more than one goal between the sides. That has meant bigger teams striving for a last-gasp victory against weaker opposition: France (twice), Spain, England and Italy have scored late winners. Most of the other late goals have come from teams who were chasing an equaliser and left themselves exposed to counterattacks.
Many have been scored by substitutes, including Antoine Griezmann, Daniel Sturridge, Niall McGinn and Bastian Schweinsteiger. Football has become a squad game, with managers belatedly starting to open their minds about the relationship between the starting XI and the substitutes. It’s easy to envisage a distant future in which a striker is disappointed at being asked to start rather than sit on the bench and come on for the most important bit. So far, 23.4 percent of goals have been scored by subs. The highest in a full European Championship is 17.2 percent in 1996.
That included two in the final by Germany’s Oliver Bierhoff. Four years later, Sylvain Wiltord came from the bench to equalise in stoppage-time for the eventual winners France. Substitutes and late goals have always gone together; at the moment, they are almost inseparable.
The goals per game average at Euro 2016 is a miserable 1.96. Lower than any World Cup in history; lower than any European Championship since 1980; lower even than Serie A in the 1980s. Yet the tournament has not felt remotely boring, because of the charming underdog stories and particularly the overload of late drama.
Thirteen of the 47 goals scored so far have come after the 85th minute, easily the highest percentage in a European Championship and almost three times the equivalent figure at Euro 2012.
Euro 2016 will inevitably break the records for most late goals and most goals by a substitute, as there are 20 extra games, but it is the percentage figures that are more revealing. A striking 27.7 percent of the goals have been scored after the 85th minute. Opta stats show that only one other European Championship – 2008, when the figure was 21.9 percent – has managed even half that.
We have seen only 24 of the tournament’s 51 matches, and things will regress towards the mean as the sample size becomes bigger. But already late goals, along with Andrés Iniesta’s quest to became the first man to produce a perfect 90 minute performance, feels like a lasting theme of the tournament.
There is no one reason for all the late goals, rather a combination of circumstances that include defensive fatigue, the freshness of attacking substitutes and a lack of experience at protecting a lead in a major tournament.
The closeness of the matches is another important factor. The late goals have largely been the cake, not the icing. Only two matches – Spain v Turkey and Belgium v the Republic of Ireland – entered the last five minutes with more than one goal between the sides. That has meant bigger teams striving for a last-gasp victory against weaker opposition: France (twice), Spain, England and Italy have scored late winners. Most of the other late goals have come from teams who were chasing an equaliser and left themselves exposed to counterattacks.
Many have been scored by substitutes, including Antoine Griezmann, Daniel Sturridge, Niall McGinn and Bastian Schweinsteiger. Football has become a squad game, with managers belatedly starting to open their minds about the relationship between the starting XI and the substitutes. It’s easy to envisage a distant future in which a striker is disappointed at being asked to start rather than sit on the bench and come on for the most important bit. So far, 23.4 percent of goals have been scored by subs. The highest in a full European Championship is 17.2 percent in 1996.
That included two in the final by Germany’s Oliver Bierhoff. Four years later, Sylvain Wiltord came from the bench to equalise in stoppage-time for the eventual winners France. Substitutes and late goals have always gone together; at the moment, they are almost inseparable.
(rnz)
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